The Brexit Pantomime!

by Louise Mclean

From 1st January to 31st December we have been going through a transition phase of leaving the European Union, continuing to abide by all their rules and regulations until that final date, when we are supposed to have agreed a trade deal. Since at least March 2020, the UK Brexit negotiators have been talking to the EU, looking for an agreement.  Here we are, nine months' later and that trade deal has not yet been signed.

For the last few months and at least since the end of June 2020, when the deal was supposed to be agreed, four main sticking points have remained.  These are the 'level playing field' (to continue being bound by EU law), sharing our fishing waters with other European countries, disputes being adjudicated by the European Court of Justice and the issue of State Aid, which may give our country the competitive edge over European states.

Michel Barnier, the chief EU negotiator, has been over to London numerous times and probably thousands of hours of discussions have taken place.  Lord David Frost, Britain's Brexit negotiator has been over to Brussels and now Boris Johnson, our Prime Minister seems to have taken over.

'Oh no you won't!'  'Oh yes we will!'  On and on it goes.  The British Press has been telling us repeatedly for at least two months that the outcome will be a No Deal Brexit.  Then we hear Boris is absolutely dead set on having a deal.  After that we are told that Boris will cave in to the EU's demands and we will have Brexit in Name Only (BRINO).  Then again we hear that Boris will leave with no deal.  

Recently we read that there may even be an extension past 31st December for the transition period. Every day there is chopping and changing and it is enough to drive the public mad with frustration.  After all, we have been waiting for four and a half years already!

Boris Johnson was elected on 12th December 2019 with his promise to 'Get Brexit Done'.  Here we are over a year later, and there is no sign whatsoever that this has been finalised.  Brexiteers are urging Boris to walk away with No Deal.  If he did this, the EU would come running and everything could be sorted out afterwards.  

The sheer number of deadlines that Boris Johnson proclaimed, which have come and gone, is truly astonishing!  The 30th June was the first important one, Then came 31st July, 15th September, 15th October, 15th November and 30th November!  Now we hear that a deal will be secured in 10 days and Parliament may have to sit on Christmas Eve!  

If we had a decisive leader like Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister, we would have been out a long time ago.

Unfortunately by constantly changing his mind and by running over to Brussels recently just when he was looking strong, Boris makes it patently clear that he wants a deal, which then makes it easier for the EU to eventually make him back down on his 'red lines', which are the above four areas of contention.

Today Monsieur Barnier has said there are now only two main issues to be agreed and that is sharing our territorial fishing waters and basically stopping us becoming more competitive than EU markets. Does that mean the other two areas have already been agreed?  We do not know.

Recently member states have started to intervene in the negotiations making their own demands and the situation seems extremely difficult, if not impossible.  The fact is that the issue at stake is that Britain is supposed to become a sovereign country making her own laws, which is what we voted for on 23rd June 2016, so the whole thing has become absurd, in that it doesn't matter what EU states want, when we are trying to break free of their control.

We were told repeatedly in the past that our two hundred mile fishing waters were not important and yet right now this has become one of the main sticking points, as countries such as France and Holland take our fish on a regular basis. Today we learn that Monsieur Barnier has threatened us with economic trade sanctions if we lock out European fishermen from our waters!  Only yesterday we were reading that Boris Johnson planned to bring in the Royal Navy to stop foreign fishermen!

It does not seem possible that a trade deal will be agreed in seventeen days by 31st December, since our Parliament must approve it, the EU 27 member states must also rubber stamp it and it must be debated in the European Parliament.  A further extension is therefore likely, something that will infuriate all Brexiteers, as there has been plenty of time this year to come to an agreement.

The whole thing is becoming ridiculous.  The EU is waiting for us to back down and we are waiting for them to do likewise.  Boris Johnson does not seem to realise that the EU is intransigent and will never back down, unless......we left with No Deal.  Only then would they perhaps compromise.  In the meantime, Brexiteers are getting thoroughly fed up with this never ending pantomime!

So Many Missed Brexit Deadlines!

 

by Louise Mclean

The ongoing sorry saga of this year's Brexit negotiations continues, despite four missed deadlines.

The first was the important date of 30th June 2020, when a trade deal should have been agreed or otherwise a possible transition extension.

Boris Johnson and Lord David Frost, our Brexit negotiator, stood firm however and refused to change the final transition deadline of 31st December 2020.

Since then there have been other deadlines that Boris Johnson set, such as 31st July, 15th October and 15th November, when an EU Summit was taking place during this week!

On 15th November, while embarking on yet another round of talks, David Frost tweeted: 'We are working to get a deal but the only one that's possible is one that is compatible with our sovereignty and takes back control of our laws, our trade and our waters.  This has been our consistent position from the start and I will not be changing it.'

This is reassuring but quite frankly, it is like a stuck record!  This deadlock has been going on since March!  We just have to pray that Boris and David don't cave in at the last moment, as the clock is really ticking fast at this stage!  We are coming up to the end of November and December will be mainly taken up with Christmas holidays, so there is very little time to agree a trade deal.

What is extremely important in all this, is the fact that top authorities on Brexit, including Martin Howe QC, Ben Habib, (former MEP for the Brexit Party) and the Centre for Brexit Policy are clearly saying that even with No Deal, there will be no Australian style trading arrangement, so long as we are signed up to Theresa May's disastrous Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration.  It simply will not be possible.  

Leading Barrister Martin Howe argues that some of the Withdrawal Agreement clauses should be redrafted in order to maintain the independence, sovereignty and integrity of the United Kingdom, or we will be tied to the European Union for many years to come.

Numerous Brexiteers and leading campaigning organisations have sent Boris a letter dated 19th November 2020 imploring him to walk away now, once and for all, citing all the missed deadlines!  See video  

The EU remains intransigent with their own red lines but the EU States themselves are now panicking about trade, the lack of time and a possible No Deal outcome.

The EU red lines have remained consistent, as has our rejection of them.  Disagreement over State Aid rules, the European Court of Justice being the arbiter of any disputes, sharing our 200 mile fishing waters with other EU States and the 'level playing field' (i.e. abiding by many EU laws).  

Many are saying that the EU have not been treating Britain as a sovereign country, have not been negotiating in good faith and that gives Britain the right to pull out of the talks.

Currently David Frost says there is a short suspension of the negotiations, due to one of the EU's team having tested positive for COVID19.  In addition, Boris Johnson was in contact with an MP who tested positive last week and although Boris subsequently tested negative, he decided nevertheless to take the full two week's quarantine.

This means little is being achieved at the moment with regard to the Brexit negotiations.  With less than six weeks until the end of the Brexit transition period, it does not seem likely that any meaningful trade deal will be struck between the parties. 

We will just have to hope and pray that Boris Johnson has the courage to walk away from these negotiations and hopefully tear up the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, although this seems unlikely, as it is doubtful he has the courage to shred them and has always said he wanted to conclude a trade deal.

The other alternative is that a botched deal will be hatched or that the Brexit transition period is extended, citing the virus and lock down as an excuse.