Boris WTO - Is this the Real Deal?

by Louise Mclean

On Friday 16th October, after Boris Johnson waited to see the outcome of discussions on Brexit at an EU Summit, he made a statement in Downing Street saying we would be leaving the transition period at the end of the year trading with the EU on WTO terms, or as he put it 'Australian' rules. Boris said all the UK had ever asked for was a Canadian style trade deal but it seems the EU was not prepared to grant one.

Leaving on WTO rules is admirable and something a very large percentage of British people have wanted for a long time.

The Government was so final about this decision that on Friday, Lord David Frost, chief UK negotiator, even warned Michel Barnier not to bother to come back this week for further talks.  However, I see Barnier and Frost are talking again today after yet another final ultimatum from us!

Michael Gove is also talking to an EU official today, even though he stated that we would 'leave the door ajar' for future talks, if the EU changes its stance and backs down on its demands.

This does not sound very final, nor very decisive.  It is unlikely the EU will back down on its call for us to continue to be bound by EU laws, to be adjudicated by the European Court of Justice, to bring our state aid rules in line with theirs and to give them access to our fishing waters.

These are very tough commands for a country that wants to break free from the European Union and make its own laws!

  

The fact that the EU is so desperate to continue the talks, shows that they, not us, will be the real losers if they don't get a deal.  They trade far more with us, than we do with them.  They sell us over £100 billion more than we sell them and worried business leaders in top EU states, such as Germany and France, have been begging the EU to do a good trade deal with us.

Despite the fact that the EU needs a deal more than we do, as we can soon trade with countries around the world, the EU still pretends it holds the real power. In a tweet on Friday 16th October, Donald Tusk said: 

Dear @BorisJohnson, we all know that you like playing tug of war. But remember, if you play for too long, you can take a nasty fall. And all the others will pay the price.   

This sounds rather threatening and could have other meaning!

Emmanuel Macron is very concerned about his French fishermen, as there has also been talk of the possibility of the EU offering French waters to European fishermen if we are not prepared to budge on fishing.

Macron has repeatedly said that the UK will be worse off if we go for No Deal or WTO trade.  Of course this is not true, as the UK only has 8% of its businesses trading with the EU.

92% of UK businesses either trade internally or are already trading on WTO rules and have been smoothly doing so for a long time.  In fact one caller on LBC about a year ago said her company trades with both the EU and on WTO.  She said the paperwork was much easier for WTO!

However, even if we do completely walk out of the trade talks and go for WTO instead, there is still the huge problem of much of the Withdrawal Agreement, which still makes it impossible to have a clean break.  This was unfortunately signed into law to become effective on 31st January 2020, making it difficult to release us.  If it had been signed before 19th December, Boris could have used the excuse that Parliament cannot bind its successors, i.e. there was a new Parliament after the election.

The EU is still making a big fuss about the Internal Market Bill, which would facilitate smooth trade between all the countries of Britain and it is even trying to take legal action because it breaches the Withdrawal Agreement.  Although the Bill got through the House of Commons at the end of September, the House of Lords wants to vote it down. Certainly not a House full of patriots!

Of course the EU don't want us to leave at all and Theresa May saw to it that the WA factored in the possibility of us rejoining in the years ahead.  It is a disastrous Agreement, full of traps and should be torn up.

If we had someone like Margaret Thatcher negotiating for us, we would never still be in this position 4 years, 4 months after the Referendum!  It seems our politicians have made a real mess of getting us out but trading on WTO would be a start, if the WA even allows it!

If we had a Trump, the whole thing would have probably been settled by the end of 2016.  I note that on Donald Tusk's Twitter feed, he has a picture of himself with Joe Biden, saying trade would be good between USA and EU if Biden wins the election on 3rd November.  However Biden's family is currently under investigation for crimes committed, which may possibly make him ineligible to stand for election!

It seems that our fully leaving the transition period on 31st December, even if we trade on WTO rules, would mean we would still have to alter or completely ditch the Withdrawal Agreement in order to be completely free. Somehow I cannot see Boris Johnson doing that!

 

EU Making Threats and Demands

by Louise Mclean

Anyone who thought that after officially leaving the Bloc on 31st January, all would be done and dusted, is going to find this is very far from the case.  A trade deal with the EU was never going to be easy.  Officials in Brussels had been used to Theresa May agreeing their negotiating terms and simply have not been able to accept that Boris Johnson's new government is no longer prepared to cow tow to them as before.

Starting with a demand for £1 billion on the day we left on 31st January, the threats and demands have been coming thick and fast ever since.

Initially the EU has been demanding continued access to our territorial fishing waters in exchange for a trade deal.  We have had more than enough of large EU trawlers hoovering up our coastlines and destroying it!  The quotas are in their favour and we are hardly allowed to catch any of our own fish!

In addition, the EU want the UK to stay in the Customs Union and Single Market in order to trade with the European Union.  Compliance with this and all other EU laws and directives is currently what is meant by 'a level regulatory playing field'. They want continued freedom of movement and any disputes to continue to be adjudicated by the European Court of Justice.

The Johnson government's chief Brexit negotiator, David Frost, made it clear in a speech recently that leaving the EU meant we would be making our own laws and the ECJ would no longer have jurisdiction over us. Boris Johnson also stated that in many cases our laws are superior to those in the EU, for example in the workplace and environment.

Michel Barnier and others have also insisted that the 31st December 2020 deadline would not be long enough for a trade deal to be finalised, suggesting we would have to push forward the date of the transition. Of course this is just another delaying tactic and attempt to stop us fully leaving.

The latest demand is that in return for a trade deal, we must return the Elgin Marbles to Greece, which are currently in the British Museum.

Yesterday Boris Johnson produced a document from 2017 showing that the EU stated only a Canada style trade deal would be available to us, which is precisely what Boris is asking for,  but Michel Barnier is now saying that an EU-Canada style trade deal is no longer on offer!

The truth of the matter is that with Britain leaving, the EU is going to have a big hole in its budget and will have to ask other member states to pay more, many of which are not happy to do so.  The other thing that bothers Brussels is the idea of Britain becoming highly competitive, making a great success of trading around the world and tempting others to leave the Bloc and follow suit.

What is totally obvious is the EU does not really want us to fully leave and is doing everything in its power to hold on to us.  It looks as though there will be an almighty fight ahead that will require Boris Johnson and David Frost to be unequivocal and not back down one inch.

The fact is that we buy far more from the EU than what we sell to them.  The trade deficit in 2019 was £130 billion.  Therefore they need us far more than we need them because we can easily buy goods elsewhere, which is probably what will happen, since EU goods are anyway overpriced.

The truth is that the UK is the fifth or sixth biggest economy in the world and the second most powerful country and we will be much more successful and prosperous without the dead hand of EU regulations holding us back!