So Many Missed Brexit Deadlines!

 

by Louise Mclean

The ongoing sorry saga of this year's Brexit negotiations continues, despite four missed deadlines.

The first was the important date of 30th June 2020, when a trade deal should have been agreed or otherwise a possible transition extension.

Boris Johnson and Lord David Frost, our Brexit negotiator, stood firm however and refused to change the final transition deadline of 31st December 2020.

Since then there have been other deadlines that Boris Johnson set, such as 31st July, 15th October and 15th November, when an EU Summit was taking place during this week!

On 15th November, while embarking on yet another round of talks, David Frost tweeted: 'We are working to get a deal but the only one that's possible is one that is compatible with our sovereignty and takes back control of our laws, our trade and our waters.  This has been our consistent position from the start and I will not be changing it.'

This is reassuring but quite frankly, it is like a stuck record!  This deadlock has been going on since March!  We just have to pray that Boris and David don't cave in at the last moment, as the clock is really ticking fast at this stage!  We are coming up to the end of November and December will be mainly taken up with Christmas holidays, so there is very little time to agree a trade deal.

What is extremely important in all this, is the fact that top authorities on Brexit, including Martin Howe QC, Ben Habib, (former MEP for the Brexit Party) and the Centre for Brexit Policy are clearly saying that even with No Deal, there will be no Australian style trading arrangement, so long as we are signed up to Theresa May's disastrous Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration.  It simply will not be possible.  

Leading Barrister Martin Howe argues that some of the Withdrawal Agreement clauses should be redrafted in order to maintain the independence, sovereignty and integrity of the United Kingdom, or we will be tied to the European Union for many years to come.

Numerous Brexiteers and leading campaigning organisations have sent Boris a letter dated 19th November 2020 imploring him to walk away now, once and for all, citing all the missed deadlines!  See video  

The EU remains intransigent with their own red lines but the EU States themselves are now panicking about trade, the lack of time and a possible No Deal outcome.

The EU red lines have remained consistent, as has our rejection of them.  Disagreement over State Aid rules, the European Court of Justice being the arbiter of any disputes, sharing our 200 mile fishing waters with other EU States and the 'level playing field' (i.e. abiding by many EU laws).  

Many are saying that the EU have not been treating Britain as a sovereign country, have not been negotiating in good faith and that gives Britain the right to pull out of the talks.

Currently David Frost says there is a short suspension of the negotiations, due to one of the EU's team having tested positive for COVID19.  In addition, Boris Johnson was in contact with an MP who tested positive last week and although Boris subsequently tested negative, he decided nevertheless to take the full two week's quarantine.

This means little is being achieved at the moment with regard to the Brexit negotiations.  With less than six weeks until the end of the Brexit transition period, it does not seem likely that any meaningful trade deal will be struck between the parties. 

We will just have to hope and pray that Boris Johnson has the courage to walk away from these negotiations and hopefully tear up the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, although this seems unlikely, as it is doubtful he has the courage to shred them and has always said he wanted to conclude a trade deal.

The other alternative is that a botched deal will be hatched or that the Brexit transition period is extended, citing the virus and lock down as an excuse.

Boris WTO - Is this the Real Deal?

by Louise Mclean

On Friday 16th October, after Boris Johnson waited to see the outcome of discussions on Brexit at an EU Summit, he made a statement in Downing Street saying we would be leaving the transition period at the end of the year trading with the EU on WTO terms, or as he put it 'Australian' rules. Boris said all the UK had ever asked for was a Canadian style trade deal but it seems the EU was not prepared to grant one.

Leaving on WTO rules is admirable and something a very large percentage of British people have wanted for a long time.

The Government was so final about this decision that on Friday, Lord David Frost, chief UK negotiator, even warned Michel Barnier not to bother to come back this week for further talks.  However, I see Barnier and Frost are talking again today after yet another final ultimatum from us!

Michael Gove is also talking to an EU official today, even though he stated that we would 'leave the door ajar' for future talks, if the EU changes its stance and backs down on its demands.

This does not sound very final, nor very decisive.  It is unlikely the EU will back down on its call for us to continue to be bound by EU laws, to be adjudicated by the European Court of Justice, to bring our state aid rules in line with theirs and to give them access to our fishing waters.

These are very tough commands for a country that wants to break free from the European Union and make its own laws!

  

The fact that the EU is so desperate to continue the talks, shows that they, not us, will be the real losers if they don't get a deal.  They trade far more with us, than we do with them.  They sell us over £100 billion more than we sell them and worried business leaders in top EU states, such as Germany and France, have been begging the EU to do a good trade deal with us.

Despite the fact that the EU needs a deal more than we do, as we can soon trade with countries around the world, the EU still pretends it holds the real power. In a tweet on Friday 16th October, Donald Tusk said: 

Dear @BorisJohnson, we all know that you like playing tug of war. But remember, if you play for too long, you can take a nasty fall. And all the others will pay the price.   

This sounds rather threatening and could have other meaning!

Emmanuel Macron is very concerned about his French fishermen, as there has also been talk of the possibility of the EU offering French waters to European fishermen if we are not prepared to budge on fishing.

Macron has repeatedly said that the UK will be worse off if we go for No Deal or WTO trade.  Of course this is not true, as the UK only has 8% of its businesses trading with the EU.

92% of UK businesses either trade internally or are already trading on WTO rules and have been smoothly doing so for a long time.  In fact one caller on LBC about a year ago said her company trades with both the EU and on WTO.  She said the paperwork was much easier for WTO!

However, even if we do completely walk out of the trade talks and go for WTO instead, there is still the huge problem of much of the Withdrawal Agreement, which still makes it impossible to have a clean break.  This was unfortunately signed into law to become effective on 31st January 2020, making it difficult to release us.  If it had been signed before 19th December, Boris could have used the excuse that Parliament cannot bind its successors, i.e. there was a new Parliament after the election.

The EU is still making a big fuss about the Internal Market Bill, which would facilitate smooth trade between all the countries of Britain and it is even trying to take legal action because it breaches the Withdrawal Agreement.  Although the Bill got through the House of Commons at the end of September, the House of Lords wants to vote it down. Certainly not a House full of patriots!

Of course the EU don't want us to leave at all and Theresa May saw to it that the WA factored in the possibility of us rejoining in the years ahead.  It is a disastrous Agreement, full of traps and should be torn up.

If we had someone like Margaret Thatcher negotiating for us, we would never still be in this position 4 years, 4 months after the Referendum!  It seems our politicians have made a real mess of getting us out but trading on WTO would be a start, if the WA even allows it!

If we had a Trump, the whole thing would have probably been settled by the end of 2016.  I note that on Donald Tusk's Twitter feed, he has a picture of himself with Joe Biden, saying trade would be good between USA and EU if Biden wins the election on 3rd November.  However Biden's family is currently under investigation for crimes committed, which may possibly make him ineligible to stand for election!

It seems that our fully leaving the transition period on 31st December, even if we trade on WTO rules, would mean we would still have to alter or completely ditch the Withdrawal Agreement in order to be completely free. Somehow I cannot see Boris Johnson doing that!

 

Will Internal Market Bill Bring Down Talks with EU?

by Louise Mclean

David Frost has now finished the 8th week of talks with Monsieur Barnier, attempting to seal a trade deal with the EU but going nowhere it seems.  Roadblocks are present on fishing and state aid, which Barnier has made a precondition for a trade deal.  The EU still thinks it can carry on fishing in our territorial waters and meddling in our affairs and seem unable to grasp the fact that since 31st January 2020 we are now a sovereign country.

Their little plan to keep control of the UK via the Northern Ireland Protocol has been scuppered with this week's announcement of the UK Internal Market Bill, which was published on 10th September and will be voted on next week.  When the EU got wind of this, they went ballistic!

Brandon Lewis, the Northern Ireland Secretary, was taking questions about the Bill in the House last Tuesday and rather rashly said that we would in fact be breaking international law 'in a very specific and limited way', i.e. the Withdrawal Agreement, which Michael Gove, in charge of No Deal Brexit preparations, has refuted.

However, top lawyer Martin Howe QC, Chairman of Lawyers for Britain and EU law expert, has argued this is NOT the case at all.  He states that as a sovereign country, we are entitled to create our own laws to defend our national interest and this is made clear in Section 38 of the Withdrawal Agreement Act.

Mr. Howe also points out that the 1707 Articles of Union between England and Scotland and those between Great Britain and Ireland in 1800, abolished all customs duties between the different parts of the UK. This meant that citizens of all parts of the UK should be 'on the same footing in respect of trade and navigation, and in all treaties with foreign powers'. 

Northern Ireland has been the little trick the EU wanted to pull off from the start to keep its hold on the UK, keeping Northern Ireland in its Customs Union by creating a border down the Irish Sea but this Bill prevents it from doing so.

The Internal Market Bill states that all goods produced in the United Kingdom (including Northern Ireland), should be treated equally.  It also protects from potentially damaging interference by the EU, ending the application of EU law in the UK, because the Northern Ireland Protocol potentially gave the EU a great deal of power to interfere with not just Northern Irish goods but goods exported from the rest of the UK as well.

So the EU has been issuing threats and demands, absolutely furious their little game for Northern Ireland could be ruined!  They have been threatening legal action but as mentioned above, top legal experts say they have no case.  EU top brass have been demanding parts of the new Bill be removed within a few weeks but so far this has been refused.  

We have been bullied for far too long! The EU have shown themselves to be absolutely impossible to negotiate with. They are sclerotic in their approach and would have Britain in a straight jacket before they are satisfied.  They also cannot stand the idea that we will be prosperous and successful without them. Brexiteers' patience is finally snapping completely and there have been plenty of rows from Remainers.

The truth is that according to John Longworth, Chairman of the Independent Business Network and a staunch Brexiteer, we only actually export 13% of our GDP and 8% of businesses including supply chains to the EU. The amount of trade we do with them has been falling for some time.  We have been trading on WTO already with many countries in the world.

Today we learn that Boris is thinking of finding new markets outside the EU, if they continue with their threats for passing the Internal Market Bill.  This will seriously impact the sale of EU goods to the UK, which are massively greater than ours to them. 

Next week Parliament will be voting on the new Bill and although about 30 Tory MPs and Labour will vote against it, Boris has a 80 seat majority and the DUP will support it.

In fact the European Research Group (ERG) and senior cabinet MPs are seriously suggesting that Boris repeals the Withdrawal Agreement Act altogether, due to its many pitfalls.  Not just problems with Northern Ireland, but others including the fact that we would be liable to bail out the EU if it goes bust!!  The other reason to tear up the WA, is because apparently even if we walk away with No Deal and go on to WTO rules, it will still be in force and in law.

Of course there are squeals of indignation coming from the likes of Blair and John Major, two dedicated Globalists and also from Labour leader Keir Starmer.

The trouble is the longer we leave this mess without sorting it out, the more chance Remainers and the EU get to think up new ways to stop us leaving properly. The EU has taken charge for so long, it simply cannot understand why this will not be continuing.  

Now Boris Johnson must be really bold and do what is necessary to get us out, even if there is screaming and shouting from the opposition.  The British people overwhelmingly voted to completely leave the European Union and we will applaud Boris if he can get it done right!

More Roadblocks to Trade Deal with EU!

by Louise Mclean

At the conclusion of this last week of talks, David Frost issued a statement yesterday which reveals that the EU is still very much at odds with the UK's stance on a trade deal.

The UK has threatened to make public all the threats of the EU during the ongoing negotiations.

After the third negotiating round this year, both sides were downbeat about any progress being achieved and David Frost says that Britain will be publishing all its draft legal texts, so that EU member states and others can read them.

David Frost says the major obstacle is the EU's ideological insistence on creating 'novel and unbalanced proposals' for standards to comply with the EU's 'level playing field'.  David Frost said:  "The major obstacle is the EU's insistence on including a set of novel and unbalanced proposals on the so-called 'level playing field', which would bind this country to EU law or standards, or determine our domestic legal regimes, in a way that is unprecedented in Free Trade Agreements and not envisaged in the Political Declaration". 

The Bloc has demanded that Britain is tied to EU regulation on trade, fisheries, aviation, energy and that the European Court of Justice should oversee legal standards.  This includes products, e.g. pharmaceutical, entering the EU market from Britain.  It also includes tying Britain to EU state aid rules.

In addition, Mr. Frost said that the EU continues to insist on fisheries arrangements and access to UK fishing waters that is incompatible with our future status as an independent coastal state and which would be against the interests of the UK fishing industry. 

Michel Barnier still demands that the UK cannot have the 'best of both worlds', but all Britain wants is a similar Comprehensive Free Trade Deal to the ones the EU completed with Canada and Japan, which never included regulatory alignment!

Meanwhile, Ursula von der Leyen has threatened that the EU will sue Britain for not complying with EU freedom of movement rules.  A statement by the European Commission reads: 'UK national legislation limits the scope of beneficiaries of EU free movement law in the UK, as well as the possibilities for EU citizens and their family members to appeal administrative decisions restricting free movement rights'.

On our side, Michael Gove has been extremely concerned about the rights of Brits living in the EU.  He says that legislation protects European citizens in the UK but no such legislation appears to protect our UK citizens.

Gove says there is widespread disregard for the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement which says people should be allowed to remain in either the UK or EU after the transition but Britons applying for settled status to stay in Spain, France, Hungary, Slovenia, Cyprus, Austria and the Czech Republic have had problems.

UK citizens have sent alarming claims to the Government about their concerns regarding the application process,  In a letter to EU Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic, Mr. Gove sets out a four point complaint, saying 'we take our Withdrawal Agreement obligations on citizens' rights very seriously'.

The UK has made available grants of £9 million to 57 community organisation to support vulnerable EU citizens but in contrast member states have not yet shared similar information and in some cases there seems to be none.

The next round of talks is due to begin on 1st June, whereupon a decision must be made by 30th June as to whether the transition period should be extended for a further two years past the end of December this year.  Boris Johnson has so far totally ruled out any extension.

As far as the Writer is concerned, it looks like the EU are trying to come up with every possible roadblock to prevent Britain untying itself from its shackles by 31st December 2020 and we should just leave on WTO terms as soon as possible.  I predict that the EU will make a trade deal impossible with its demands.

Too Many Red Flags Coming from Boris' Government

by Louise Mclean

I don't own a mansion, nor do I have a large private pension but the proposals for new taxes by the Conservative government in the March budget make me wonder whether they are in fact socialists in disguise.  Today we see that Sajid Javid has resigned as Chancellor, so perhaps these new taxes will be scrapped.

However, Conservative voters especially will be shocked by these ideas but there are many other red flags raised in the first two months of this new Government.

Are these leftist policies coming from the influence of Dominic Cummings - a self proclaimed lover of the Bolshevik Revolution?

The decision to allow Huawei to run our 5G network is threatening our excellent relationship with the USA, who are apparently furious that Britain will be using them.  We were supposed to be negotiating a trade deal with America straight after leaving the EU on 31st January but now it appears to be delayed. Starting these trade deal negotiations with the US before a trade deal with the EU would have been good strategy.

HS2, which we all had high hopes would be summarily scrapped, is now going ahead.  The 100 billion could have funded a new rail network for the North, among other things.  The public see it as a huge waste of money, just so that a small number of people can shave 20 minutes of their journey from London to Manchester, quite apart from the 100 ancient woodlands and countless small villages that will be desecrated.

Then there is the question of illegal immigrants turning up on our shores in droves in Kent. Far from being sent back to France, they appear to be taken to Dover.  The public are desperate to know when this will stop.  Twitter has been talking of nothing else. Some time back Boris said he would like an amnesty for illegal immigrants, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

We read that Jamaican criminals are being deported but what about all the other terrorists, murderers and rapists of foreign descent? The public would like to see these deported.

It is all very well catching 100 or so illegal immigrants coming in on dinghies across the Channel  We have a nearly 8,000 mile coastline, which is unmanned and they can come in at will anywhere around it.  Apparently we now have 11 patrol boats, whereas other countries like Italy have hundreds.

Of course this is not including the many illegals coming in via lorries, most of which may be undetected.  Since the driver would probably be fined, if he did find stowaways in his lorry without his knowledge, he would probably let them go and keep quiet! Yesterday we learnt of a driver being sent to jail for bringing in 3 Vietnamese people.

Then there is getting rid of gas boilers and buying electric cars, which will be very expensive for people and the expensive idea of building a bridge from Northern Ireland to Scotland, which will likely go over budget.

Boris giving a peerage to arch-Remainers Philip Hammond and Ken Clarke has not gone down well with Brexiteers.  Not exactly in line with his removing the whip from those 21 Remoaner Conservative MPs last autumn.

We can only pray that Boris does not backtrack on his promises regarding Brexit.  We must fully regain our fishing territories, be out of the Customs Union and Single Market, remove the ECJ from rulings and run the country under our own laws. Will he allow European trawlers to have fishing quotas under licence?

The biggest red flag of all of course was last Autumn calling Mrs. May's Withdrawal Agreement with the backstop removed, 'over ready'.  It was a terrible deal voted down 3 times in Parliament and should have been scrapped altogether.

We are now in for another 10 months of intense agony negotiating with the EU over a trade deal.  They have already made constant demands and threats in advance of this. They are adamant they want to carry on fishing in our territorial waters, threaten that we will no longer have access to EU financial services and are still trying to make us stay part of the Customs Union, Single Market with our laws being overseen by the European Court of Justice.

Professor Alan Sked, a founder of UKIP, said on television recently that the EU has no trade deal with the USA or China yet trades with them both.  What does that tell you?  That this whole trade deal thing with the EU is a bit of a hoax.  We don't need a trade deal with them.  

The very best outcome for Britain would be to just leave on WTO terms.  Under GATT 24 the EU and Britain would have up to 10 years to agree a free trade deal and could carry on trading on current terms until this is finalised.  A poll in the Daily Express yesterday asking if we should just leave on WTO rules, has reached 98% in favour. Sadly Boris has shown no sign of wanting to do this. 

Yet it would be a true Brexit, giving us everything we voted for and more.  If we had left on WTO on 31st January, we could have started making trade deals with the rest of the world immediately.  As it is, we can't sign any until we leave fully at the end of December this year.

In fact the EU has us in exactly the position it wants us.  We have no say whatsoever in Europe, must follow all EU laws and adopt any new ones, as well as carry on paying them our membership fee.  Yes, this should only be until the end of the year.  That is if the EU in the next 10 months haven't found ways to keep us in this position for longer.