Will Parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol be Scrapped?

by Louise Mclean

Northern Ireland Parliament

In 2019 Boris Johnson accepted the Northern Ireland Protocol as being part of the Brexit legislation, eventually signing it into effect in January 2020.  While the rest of Britain left the EU, the Protocol meant Northern Ireland was left behind in the Single Market and under European Union law.  Here Lord David Frost explains the full history of the Protocol.

https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/the-northern-ireland-protocol-how-we-got-here-and-what-should-happen-now/

In order to avoid a hard border between the North and South of Ireland, a customs border had to be created in the Irish Sea between Britain.  This has been totally unacceptable to the majority of people in NI, making goods coming from Britain too expensive to be exported, with many UK companies ceasing to export altogether.

So since Britain left in January 2020 the people of Northern Ireland have been effectively trapped in the European Union's Single Market.

As mentioned in a previous post, there seems to be a genuine push to create a United Ireland of the North and South, all of which will be in the European Union, with the South - Republic of Ireland being already in it.

This goes against the 1800 Act of the Union, which was the legal basis for incorporating Northern Ireland into the United Kingdom. There has been other legislation since then and more especially the Belfast Good Friday Agreement in 1998 (under Tony Blair's Government), which gives the people of NI a final say as to its future, in a referendum.

https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/belfast-accord-fundamentally-alters-nature-of-north-s-place-in-the-union-1.150356

The above link explains the legislation and how it changed in 1973, (just after Britain joined the European Union), making the people of Northern Ireland sovereign and entitled to a vote if they want to break away from Britain, which would happen if the whole of Ireland were united. This may have laid the foundation for a United Ireland under the European Union.

The recent election which was held in Northern Ireland was won for the first time by the Republican Sinn Fein party, making it the largest party in the Stormont Assembly. Sinn Fein originated in the South of Ireland and historically fought for a united Ireland.

Therefore the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which was previously the leading party, now takes on the role of Deputy First Minister.  The two parties did not work well together in the past and Sinn Fein are very pro the European Union.

Sinn Fein have already announced that they do not want to scrap the Northern Ireland Protocol and are talking of giving the Northern Irish people a referendum for a United Ireland within the next five years.

Polls in Northern Ireland show that overall the people do not want to leave the United Kingdom, mainly for economic reasons.

However, since last week's election, the DUP, which advocates Northern Ireland remaining in Britain, is refusing to nominate ministers to form a new Executive until the problems with the Protocol are sorted out.  Under rules of the Northern Ireland Assembly, Sinn Fein cannot appoint their First Minister, without a DUP Deputy Minister and the DUP are refusing to cooperate until their demands for changes to the NI Protocol have been addressed.

Despite a recent debate in the UK Parliament to scrap the NI Protocol, the UK Northern Ireland Secretary, Brandon Lewis, said it would be better to negotiate with the European Union, which is a pointless exercise, when you look back at past endless negotiations that went nowhere!

The EU has indicated that it is not prepared to make any changes to Brexit legislation, which has already been signed into law and is unwilling to remove clauses relating to the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Today Liz Truss, the British Foreign Secretary, has spoken to European Union leaders and given them an ultimatum after rejecting their recent proposals and the UK Attorney General has received legal advice that it could scrap aspects of the Protocol if it was causing social unrest.  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61417798

Ms. Truss says there has been an impasse in power sharing between the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein since the election, which cannot be improved without changes to the NI Protocol.  She says: 'Prices have risen, trade is being badly disrupted, and the people of Northern Ireland are subject to different laws and taxes to those over the Irish Sea (in mainland Britain), which has left them without an Executive and poses a threat to peace and stability'.  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/10/liz-truss-stands-firm-eu-threatens-trade-war/

Britain may need to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which allows for either party to suspend parts of it, if it is causing serious problems, such as 'diversion of trade' and 'societal difficulties', which would be legal justifications.

The EU is not happy about this and is making lots of threats, including cancelling the Brexit Trade deal, legal action, dispute procedures or tariffs.  

This is an ongoing situation and we will have to see if Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have the courage to take action.

So Many Missed Brexit Deadlines!

 

by Louise Mclean

The ongoing sorry saga of this year's Brexit negotiations continues, despite four missed deadlines.

The first was the important date of 30th June 2020, when a trade deal should have been agreed or otherwise a possible transition extension.

Boris Johnson and Lord David Frost, our Brexit negotiator, stood firm however and refused to change the final transition deadline of 31st December 2020.

Since then there have been other deadlines that Boris Johnson set, such as 31st July, 15th October and 15th November, when an EU Summit was taking place during this week!

On 15th November, while embarking on yet another round of talks, David Frost tweeted: 'We are working to get a deal but the only one that's possible is one that is compatible with our sovereignty and takes back control of our laws, our trade and our waters.  This has been our consistent position from the start and I will not be changing it.'

This is reassuring but quite frankly, it is like a stuck record!  This deadlock has been going on since March!  We just have to pray that Boris and David don't cave in at the last moment, as the clock is really ticking fast at this stage!  We are coming up to the end of November and December will be mainly taken up with Christmas holidays, so there is very little time to agree a trade deal.

What is extremely important in all this, is the fact that top authorities on Brexit, including Martin Howe QC, Ben Habib, (former MEP for the Brexit Party) and the Centre for Brexit Policy are clearly saying that even with No Deal, there will be no Australian style trading arrangement, so long as we are signed up to Theresa May's disastrous Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration.  It simply will not be possible.  

Leading Barrister Martin Howe argues that some of the Withdrawal Agreement clauses should be redrafted in order to maintain the independence, sovereignty and integrity of the United Kingdom, or we will be tied to the European Union for many years to come.

Numerous Brexiteers and leading campaigning organisations have sent Boris a letter dated 19th November 2020 imploring him to walk away now, once and for all, citing all the missed deadlines!  See video  

The EU remains intransigent with their own red lines but the EU States themselves are now panicking about trade, the lack of time and a possible No Deal outcome.

The EU red lines have remained consistent, as has our rejection of them.  Disagreement over State Aid rules, the European Court of Justice being the arbiter of any disputes, sharing our 200 mile fishing waters with other EU States and the 'level playing field' (i.e. abiding by many EU laws).  

Many are saying that the EU have not been treating Britain as a sovereign country, have not been negotiating in good faith and that gives Britain the right to pull out of the talks.

Currently David Frost says there is a short suspension of the negotiations, due to one of the EU's team having tested positive for COVID19.  In addition, Boris Johnson was in contact with an MP who tested positive last week and although Boris subsequently tested negative, he decided nevertheless to take the full two week's quarantine.

This means little is being achieved at the moment with regard to the Brexit negotiations.  With less than six weeks until the end of the Brexit transition period, it does not seem likely that any meaningful trade deal will be struck between the parties. 

We will just have to hope and pray that Boris Johnson has the courage to walk away from these negotiations and hopefully tear up the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, although this seems unlikely, as it is doubtful he has the courage to shred them and has always said he wanted to conclude a trade deal.

The other alternative is that a botched deal will be hatched or that the Brexit transition period is extended, citing the virus and lock down as an excuse.