The Brexit Pantomime!

by Louise Mclean

From 1st January to 31st December we have been going through a transition phase of leaving the European Union, continuing to abide by all their rules and regulations until that final date, when we are supposed to have agreed a trade deal. Since at least March 2020, the UK Brexit negotiators have been talking to the EU, looking for an agreement.  Here we are, nine months' later and that trade deal has not yet been signed.

For the last few months and at least since the end of June 2020, when the deal was supposed to be agreed, four main sticking points have remained.  These are the 'level playing field' (to continue being bound by EU law), sharing our fishing waters with other European countries, disputes being adjudicated by the European Court of Justice and the issue of State Aid, which may give our country the competitive edge over European states.

Michel Barnier, the chief EU negotiator, has been over to London numerous times and probably thousands of hours of discussions have taken place.  Lord David Frost, Britain's Brexit negotiator has been over to Brussels and now Boris Johnson, our Prime Minister seems to have taken over.

'Oh no you won't!'  'Oh yes we will!'  On and on it goes.  The British Press has been telling us repeatedly for at least two months that the outcome will be a No Deal Brexit.  Then we hear Boris is absolutely dead set on having a deal.  After that we are told that Boris will cave in to the EU's demands and we will have Brexit in Name Only (BRINO).  Then again we hear that Boris will leave with no deal.  

Recently we read that there may even be an extension past 31st December for the transition period. Every day there is chopping and changing and it is enough to drive the public mad with frustration.  After all, we have been waiting for four and a half years already!

Boris Johnson was elected on 12th December 2019 with his promise to 'Get Brexit Done'.  Here we are over a year later, and there is no sign whatsoever that this has been finalised.  Brexiteers are urging Boris to walk away with No Deal.  If he did this, the EU would come running and everything could be sorted out afterwards.  

The sheer number of deadlines that Boris Johnson proclaimed, which have come and gone, is truly astonishing!  The 30th June was the first important one, Then came 31st July, 15th September, 15th October, 15th November and 30th November!  Now we hear that a deal will be secured in 10 days and Parliament may have to sit on Christmas Eve!  

If we had a decisive leader like Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister, we would have been out a long time ago.

Unfortunately by constantly changing his mind and by running over to Brussels recently just when he was looking strong, Boris makes it patently clear that he wants a deal, which then makes it easier for the EU to eventually make him back down on his 'red lines', which are the above four areas of contention.

Today Monsieur Barnier has said there are now only two main issues to be agreed and that is sharing our territorial fishing waters and basically stopping us becoming more competitive than EU markets. Does that mean the other two areas have already been agreed?  We do not know.

Recently member states have started to intervene in the negotiations making their own demands and the situation seems extremely difficult, if not impossible.  The fact is that the issue at stake is that Britain is supposed to become a sovereign country making her own laws, which is what we voted for on 23rd June 2016, so the whole thing has become absurd, in that it doesn't matter what EU states want, when we are trying to break free of their control.

We were told repeatedly in the past that our two hundred mile fishing waters were not important and yet right now this has become one of the main sticking points, as countries such as France and Holland take our fish on a regular basis. Today we learn that Monsieur Barnier has threatened us with economic trade sanctions if we lock out European fishermen from our waters!  Only yesterday we were reading that Boris Johnson planned to bring in the Royal Navy to stop foreign fishermen!

It does not seem possible that a trade deal will be agreed in seventeen days by 31st December, since our Parliament must approve it, the EU 27 member states must also rubber stamp it and it must be debated in the European Parliament.  A further extension is therefore likely, something that will infuriate all Brexiteers, as there has been plenty of time this year to come to an agreement.

The whole thing is becoming ridiculous.  The EU is waiting for us to back down and we are waiting for them to do likewise.  Boris Johnson does not seem to realise that the EU is intransigent and will never back down, unless......we left with No Deal.  Only then would they perhaps compromise.  In the meantime, Brexiteers are getting thoroughly fed up with this never ending pantomime!

Boris WTO - Is this the Real Deal?

by Louise Mclean

On Friday 16th October, after Boris Johnson waited to see the outcome of discussions on Brexit at an EU Summit, he made a statement in Downing Street saying we would be leaving the transition period at the end of the year trading with the EU on WTO terms, or as he put it 'Australian' rules. Boris said all the UK had ever asked for was a Canadian style trade deal but it seems the EU was not prepared to grant one.

Leaving on WTO rules is admirable and something a very large percentage of British people have wanted for a long time.

The Government was so final about this decision that on Friday, Lord David Frost, chief UK negotiator, even warned Michel Barnier not to bother to come back this week for further talks.  However, I see Barnier and Frost are talking again today after yet another final ultimatum from us!

Michael Gove is also talking to an EU official today, even though he stated that we would 'leave the door ajar' for future talks, if the EU changes its stance and backs down on its demands.

This does not sound very final, nor very decisive.  It is unlikely the EU will back down on its call for us to continue to be bound by EU laws, to be adjudicated by the European Court of Justice, to bring our state aid rules in line with theirs and to give them access to our fishing waters.

These are very tough commands for a country that wants to break free from the European Union and make its own laws!

  

The fact that the EU is so desperate to continue the talks, shows that they, not us, will be the real losers if they don't get a deal.  They trade far more with us, than we do with them.  They sell us over £100 billion more than we sell them and worried business leaders in top EU states, such as Germany and France, have been begging the EU to do a good trade deal with us.

Despite the fact that the EU needs a deal more than we do, as we can soon trade with countries around the world, the EU still pretends it holds the real power. In a tweet on Friday 16th October, Donald Tusk said: 

Dear @BorisJohnson, we all know that you like playing tug of war. But remember, if you play for too long, you can take a nasty fall. And all the others will pay the price.   

This sounds rather threatening and could have other meaning!

Emmanuel Macron is very concerned about his French fishermen, as there has also been talk of the possibility of the EU offering French waters to European fishermen if we are not prepared to budge on fishing.

Macron has repeatedly said that the UK will be worse off if we go for No Deal or WTO trade.  Of course this is not true, as the UK only has 8% of its businesses trading with the EU.

92% of UK businesses either trade internally or are already trading on WTO rules and have been smoothly doing so for a long time.  In fact one caller on LBC about a year ago said her company trades with both the EU and on WTO.  She said the paperwork was much easier for WTO!

However, even if we do completely walk out of the trade talks and go for WTO instead, there is still the huge problem of much of the Withdrawal Agreement, which still makes it impossible to have a clean break.  This was unfortunately signed into law to become effective on 31st January 2020, making it difficult to release us.  If it had been signed before 19th December, Boris could have used the excuse that Parliament cannot bind its successors, i.e. there was a new Parliament after the election.

The EU is still making a big fuss about the Internal Market Bill, which would facilitate smooth trade between all the countries of Britain and it is even trying to take legal action because it breaches the Withdrawal Agreement.  Although the Bill got through the House of Commons at the end of September, the House of Lords wants to vote it down. Certainly not a House full of patriots!

Of course the EU don't want us to leave at all and Theresa May saw to it that the WA factored in the possibility of us rejoining in the years ahead.  It is a disastrous Agreement, full of traps and should be torn up.

If we had someone like Margaret Thatcher negotiating for us, we would never still be in this position 4 years, 4 months after the Referendum!  It seems our politicians have made a real mess of getting us out but trading on WTO would be a start, if the WA even allows it!

If we had a Trump, the whole thing would have probably been settled by the end of 2016.  I note that on Donald Tusk's Twitter feed, he has a picture of himself with Joe Biden, saying trade would be good between USA and EU if Biden wins the election on 3rd November.  However Biden's family is currently under investigation for crimes committed, which may possibly make him ineligible to stand for election!

It seems that our fully leaving the transition period on 31st December, even if we trade on WTO rules, would mean we would still have to alter or completely ditch the Withdrawal Agreement in order to be completely free. Somehow I cannot see Boris Johnson doing that!

 

Will Internal Market Bill Bring Down Talks with EU?

by Louise Mclean

David Frost has now finished the 8th week of talks with Monsieur Barnier, attempting to seal a trade deal with the EU but going nowhere it seems.  Roadblocks are present on fishing and state aid, which Barnier has made a precondition for a trade deal.  The EU still thinks it can carry on fishing in our territorial waters and meddling in our affairs and seem unable to grasp the fact that since 31st January 2020 we are now a sovereign country.

Their little plan to keep control of the UK via the Northern Ireland Protocol has been scuppered with this week's announcement of the UK Internal Market Bill, which was published on 10th September and will be voted on next week.  When the EU got wind of this, they went ballistic!

Brandon Lewis, the Northern Ireland Secretary, was taking questions about the Bill in the House last Tuesday and rather rashly said that we would in fact be breaking international law 'in a very specific and limited way', i.e. the Withdrawal Agreement, which Michael Gove, in charge of No Deal Brexit preparations, has refuted.

However, top lawyer Martin Howe QC, Chairman of Lawyers for Britain and EU law expert, has argued this is NOT the case at all.  He states that as a sovereign country, we are entitled to create our own laws to defend our national interest and this is made clear in Section 38 of the Withdrawal Agreement Act.

Mr. Howe also points out that the 1707 Articles of Union between England and Scotland and those between Great Britain and Ireland in 1800, abolished all customs duties between the different parts of the UK. This meant that citizens of all parts of the UK should be 'on the same footing in respect of trade and navigation, and in all treaties with foreign powers'. 

Northern Ireland has been the little trick the EU wanted to pull off from the start to keep its hold on the UK, keeping Northern Ireland in its Customs Union by creating a border down the Irish Sea but this Bill prevents it from doing so.

The Internal Market Bill states that all goods produced in the United Kingdom (including Northern Ireland), should be treated equally.  It also protects from potentially damaging interference by the EU, ending the application of EU law in the UK, because the Northern Ireland Protocol potentially gave the EU a great deal of power to interfere with not just Northern Irish goods but goods exported from the rest of the UK as well.

So the EU has been issuing threats and demands, absolutely furious their little game for Northern Ireland could be ruined!  They have been threatening legal action but as mentioned above, top legal experts say they have no case.  EU top brass have been demanding parts of the new Bill be removed within a few weeks but so far this has been refused.  

We have been bullied for far too long! The EU have shown themselves to be absolutely impossible to negotiate with. They are sclerotic in their approach and would have Britain in a straight jacket before they are satisfied.  They also cannot stand the idea that we will be prosperous and successful without them. Brexiteers' patience is finally snapping completely and there have been plenty of rows from Remainers.

The truth is that according to John Longworth, Chairman of the Independent Business Network and a staunch Brexiteer, we only actually export 13% of our GDP and 8% of businesses including supply chains to the EU. The amount of trade we do with them has been falling for some time.  We have been trading on WTO already with many countries in the world.

Today we learn that Boris is thinking of finding new markets outside the EU, if they continue with their threats for passing the Internal Market Bill.  This will seriously impact the sale of EU goods to the UK, which are massively greater than ours to them. 

Next week Parliament will be voting on the new Bill and although about 30 Tory MPs and Labour will vote against it, Boris has a 80 seat majority and the DUP will support it.

In fact the European Research Group (ERG) and senior cabinet MPs are seriously suggesting that Boris repeals the Withdrawal Agreement Act altogether, due to its many pitfalls.  Not just problems with Northern Ireland, but others including the fact that we would be liable to bail out the EU if it goes bust!!  The other reason to tear up the WA, is because apparently even if we walk away with No Deal and go on to WTO rules, it will still be in force and in law.

Of course there are squeals of indignation coming from the likes of Blair and John Major, two dedicated Globalists and also from Labour leader Keir Starmer.

The trouble is the longer we leave this mess without sorting it out, the more chance Remainers and the EU get to think up new ways to stop us leaving properly. The EU has taken charge for so long, it simply cannot understand why this will not be continuing.  

Now Boris Johnson must be really bold and do what is necessary to get us out, even if there is screaming and shouting from the opposition.  The British people overwhelmingly voted to completely leave the European Union and we will applaud Boris if he can get it done right!

More Roadblocks to Trade Deal with EU!

by Louise Mclean

At the conclusion of this last week of talks, David Frost issued a statement yesterday which reveals that the EU is still very much at odds with the UK's stance on a trade deal.

The UK has threatened to make public all the threats of the EU during the ongoing negotiations.

After the third negotiating round this year, both sides were downbeat about any progress being achieved and David Frost says that Britain will be publishing all its draft legal texts, so that EU member states and others can read them.

David Frost says the major obstacle is the EU's ideological insistence on creating 'novel and unbalanced proposals' for standards to comply with the EU's 'level playing field'.  David Frost said:  "The major obstacle is the EU's insistence on including a set of novel and unbalanced proposals on the so-called 'level playing field', which would bind this country to EU law or standards, or determine our domestic legal regimes, in a way that is unprecedented in Free Trade Agreements and not envisaged in the Political Declaration". 

The Bloc has demanded that Britain is tied to EU regulation on trade, fisheries, aviation, energy and that the European Court of Justice should oversee legal standards.  This includes products, e.g. pharmaceutical, entering the EU market from Britain.  It also includes tying Britain to EU state aid rules.

In addition, Mr. Frost said that the EU continues to insist on fisheries arrangements and access to UK fishing waters that is incompatible with our future status as an independent coastal state and which would be against the interests of the UK fishing industry. 

Michel Barnier still demands that the UK cannot have the 'best of both worlds', but all Britain wants is a similar Comprehensive Free Trade Deal to the ones the EU completed with Canada and Japan, which never included regulatory alignment!

Meanwhile, Ursula von der Leyen has threatened that the EU will sue Britain for not complying with EU freedom of movement rules.  A statement by the European Commission reads: 'UK national legislation limits the scope of beneficiaries of EU free movement law in the UK, as well as the possibilities for EU citizens and their family members to appeal administrative decisions restricting free movement rights'.

On our side, Michael Gove has been extremely concerned about the rights of Brits living in the EU.  He says that legislation protects European citizens in the UK but no such legislation appears to protect our UK citizens.

Gove says there is widespread disregard for the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement which says people should be allowed to remain in either the UK or EU after the transition but Britons applying for settled status to stay in Spain, France, Hungary, Slovenia, Cyprus, Austria and the Czech Republic have had problems.

UK citizens have sent alarming claims to the Government about their concerns regarding the application process,  In a letter to EU Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic, Mr. Gove sets out a four point complaint, saying 'we take our Withdrawal Agreement obligations on citizens' rights very seriously'.

The UK has made available grants of £9 million to 57 community organisation to support vulnerable EU citizens but in contrast member states have not yet shared similar information and in some cases there seems to be none.

The next round of talks is due to begin on 1st June, whereupon a decision must be made by 30th June as to whether the transition period should be extended for a further two years past the end of December this year.  Boris Johnson has so far totally ruled out any extension.

As far as the Writer is concerned, it looks like the EU are trying to come up with every possible roadblock to prevent Britain untying itself from its shackles by 31st December 2020 and we should just leave on WTO terms as soon as possible.  I predict that the EU will make a trade deal impossible with its demands.

Brexit Talks Still On - No Extension!

by Louise Mclean

It is clear that the European Union was hoping that the Covid19 pandemic would delay or even halt Brexit talks altogether during the negotiations for a trade deal.  However, thankfully Boris Johnson's ministers have been adamant that no extension past 31st December will be allowed and this has anyway been laid down in law.  

Although we technically left the EU on 31st January 2020, when Article 50 finally expired, we agreed a transition period till the end of this year, where we remain totally locked into the EU regulatory system throughout 2020, while negotiating a trade deal.  

Either a trade deal has been hashed out and agreed by the end of the year, or we will go straight to World Trade Organisation rules on 1st January 2021.

David Frost, the Government's chief negotiator put out two Tweets yesterday stating: 'Transition ends on 31st December this year.  We will not ask to extend it.  If the EU asks we will say no.  Extending would simply prolong negotiations, create even more uncertainty, leave us liable to pay more to the EU in future and keep us bound by evolving EU laws at a time when we need to control our own affairs.  In short, it is not in the UK's interest to extend.'

The latest video conference for negotiations was on 15th April and further such conferences have been arranged for the weeks of 20th April, 11th May and 1st June, this last one with a view to agreeing the implementation of the Protocol for Northern Ireland, as set out in the Withdrawal Agreement.

The decision for any extension to this transition period has to ultimately be made by 30th June of this year.  After that date, hopefully we will no longer continually hear calls for it but of course this cannot be ruled out!  

The EU will be desperate to get as many concessions from Britain as possible but we must be careful, as for example we agreed to safeguard the rights of EU citizens before they had given similar rights to UK citizens living in Europe.

The chief of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, who worked at the EU Commission under Jean-Claude Juncker, has also called for an extension but David Frost says we need to leave fully in order to be able to act in Britain's best interests for the Corona Virus, without being hampered by EU rules.

Extending the transition would be a very high risk strategy, as we would be liable for huge amounts of money if we were still locked into EU laws.  The Withdrawal Agreement binds us to EU State-aid rules, which Brussels can use to intervene in any UK policy it doesn't like.

However, the EU have graciously allowed the UK government to breach EU State-aid rules for 9 months to support British business impacted by Corona Virus but this is with our own money and not a penny of EU money is involved.

Currently the European Union had not been very supportive of its own member states, which are suffering severe financial hardship caused by Covid19.  Although they are talking of a €500 billion rescue package, to help member states, the European Central Bank says it may need up to €1.5 trillion.  The pandemic may ultimately bring down the entire European Union Project, as countries like Greece and Italy are floundering.

Here in Britain the situation is still by no means ideal regarding restrictions to halt the spread of the virus. Yesterday we heard Matt Hancock tell Piers Morgan that currently 15,000 people are still flying in to our country every day, which is 105,000 per week!

EU top brass are panicking and are desperate for an extension, which will give them more of our money.  Remainers too, are calling for an extension past 31st December and hoping we will never fully leave.  It is very heartening to read that the British Government does not plan to back down on this.

Only after 31st December 2020 can we finally be completely free to make our own laws and negotiate our own trade deals with the rest of the world!

EU's Impossible Demands

by Louise Mclean

On 25th February the EU agreed its 46 page mandate with member states for negotiating a trade deal with Britain, with talks starting in Brussels on 2nd March.

One has to wonder where Michel Barnier has been these past six months, as it seems he has failed to notice the massive tug of war between the People and Parliament to get the Brexit we voted for in June 2016. As has been pointed out, we have left the EU and should now be treated as a third country, not as a member state.

His mandate has the effrontery to ask for all the things that we had rejected, almost as though Barnier was deaf or deficient in understanding, despite Boris Johnson and his chief negotiator, David Frost, making it clear that Britain wants to 'take back control'.

In exchange for a trade deal with the EU, demands are being made to continue following EU laws and directives, for European fisherman to have the same access to our fishing waters as before and for the European Court of Justice to oversee any legal disputes.

Brussels has recently stated that although it has agreed a Canada-style trade deal, we must align closely to EU rules because we are geographically closer than Canada.  For this you can read that Brussels is terrified of Britain becoming a serious competitor on their doorstep, which is precisely what will happen once we have totally broken free.

The mandate states that we can only have zero tariff trade with the EU, if there is regulatory alignment or a 'level playing field' and maintain current standards on climate change, tax and state aid.  Remaining aligned to EU rules would be as though we had not left the European Union and we would certainly not be taking back control of our laws! 

A new demand at the behest of France, says we must have the same standards for food production, as their fear is our foods might become competitively cheaper. This may prevent us from importing foods from America, which has different safety and processing standards from Europe. Unfortunately this could be problematic, as currently, according to the Daily Telegraph, 80% of our food exports go to European markets.

The EU is also concerned that Britain may not implement a Customs Border for Northern Ireland, which had been agreed in the Withdrawal Agreement.

It looks as though swords will be crossed in the forthcoming negotiations being held in Brussels and London alternately.  These issues must be overwhelming resolved before 1st July 2020, when a decision must be made about the possibility of extending the transition date at the end of the year, when we are fully out.  Let us hope that yet another extension does not happen and if the EU continues its dogmatic stance, we will just have to trade on WTO terms.

Boris Johnson is to present his own mandate to the EU tomorrow and let us hope he does not back down and agree any of these impossible demands.

EU Making Threats and Demands

by Louise Mclean

Anyone who thought that after officially leaving the Bloc on 31st January, all would be done and dusted, is going to find this is very far from the case.  A trade deal with the EU was never going to be easy.  Officials in Brussels had been used to Theresa May agreeing their negotiating terms and simply have not been able to accept that Boris Johnson's new government is no longer prepared to cow tow to them as before.

Starting with a demand for £1 billion on the day we left on 31st January, the threats and demands have been coming thick and fast ever since.

Initially the EU has been demanding continued access to our territorial fishing waters in exchange for a trade deal.  We have had more than enough of large EU trawlers hoovering up our coastlines and destroying it!  The quotas are in their favour and we are hardly allowed to catch any of our own fish!

In addition, the EU want the UK to stay in the Customs Union and Single Market in order to trade with the European Union.  Compliance with this and all other EU laws and directives is currently what is meant by 'a level regulatory playing field'. They want continued freedom of movement and any disputes to continue to be adjudicated by the European Court of Justice.

The Johnson government's chief Brexit negotiator, David Frost, made it clear in a speech recently that leaving the EU meant we would be making our own laws and the ECJ would no longer have jurisdiction over us. Boris Johnson also stated that in many cases our laws are superior to those in the EU, for example in the workplace and environment.

Michel Barnier and others have also insisted that the 31st December 2020 deadline would not be long enough for a trade deal to be finalised, suggesting we would have to push forward the date of the transition. Of course this is just another delaying tactic and attempt to stop us fully leaving.

The latest demand is that in return for a trade deal, we must return the Elgin Marbles to Greece, which are currently in the British Museum.

Yesterday Boris Johnson produced a document from 2017 showing that the EU stated only a Canada style trade deal would be available to us, which is precisely what Boris is asking for,  but Michel Barnier is now saying that an EU-Canada style trade deal is no longer on offer!

The truth of the matter is that with Britain leaving, the EU is going to have a big hole in its budget and will have to ask other member states to pay more, many of which are not happy to do so.  The other thing that bothers Brussels is the idea of Britain becoming highly competitive, making a great success of trading around the world and tempting others to leave the Bloc and follow suit.

What is totally obvious is the EU does not really want us to fully leave and is doing everything in its power to hold on to us.  It looks as though there will be an almighty fight ahead that will require Boris Johnson and David Frost to be unequivocal and not back down one inch.

The fact is that we buy far more from the EU than what we sell to them.  The trade deficit in 2019 was £130 billion.  Therefore they need us far more than we need them because we can easily buy goods elsewhere, which is probably what will happen, since EU goods are anyway overpriced.

The truth is that the UK is the fifth or sixth biggest economy in the world and the second most powerful country and we will be much more successful and prosperous without the dead hand of EU regulations holding us back!